Analysis of the development of machine tool industry in the world in 2014
2019-10-10 07:05:50
Abstract "EFFICIENTMANUFACTURING" magazine interviewed the presidents of several machine tool associations around the world. The interviews included regional macroeconomic trends, machine tool industry development status, market prospects, and technology development trends. India: Recovery...
"EFFICIENT MANUFACTURING" magazine interviewed the presidents of several machine tool associations around the world. The interviews included regional macroeconomic trends, machine tool industry development status, market prospects, and technology development trends.
India: Recovery is beginning to emerge
Influenced by factors such as the international environment, domestic tightening monetary policy, insufficient consumer confidence, and adverse economic reforms, India’s economic Growth rate is not optimistic.
The Oxford Economic Report predicts that India's major machine tool user industry will grow by 5.2% in 2014 after two consecutive years of shrinking, which is expected to drive machine tool consumption growth of 3.8%. However, the growth of the machine tool market will also be affected by the tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of India and the progress of government reform. The Indian Machine Tool Association is more optimistic about the market. They believe that due to the government's implementation of the automobile tax reduction policy in 2014, the consumption tax will be reduced from 12% to 10%, and the growth of automobile consumption will drive the growth of the machine tool market. Machine tool consumption is expected to increase by 5-10%. In 2015, the market will increase by 15% year-on-year.
Indian machine tool consumption is stable at US$2.05 billion, of which one-third is domestically produced machine tools. In the last two quarters, with the launch of some projects in the automotive and parts, aerospace, defense, and energy sectors, machine tool orders have shown growth. The outstanding feature of market demand is that the demand for forming machine tools continues to increase.
China: weak demand
The Oxford Economic Report believes that China is implementing economic rebalancing measures to reduce investment, which has slowed economic growth. It is expected to grow at 7.2% in 2014 and 7.1% in 2015. Due to weak investment, the machinery, commercial vehicles and metal products industries will face weak user demand. Low capacity utilization further reduces new equipment purchase expenses and corporate expansion. In the medium term, it has a certain inhibitory effect on machine tool consumption.
According to the information provided by the China Machine Tool Industry Association, the machine tool market continues to be sluggish, the gold cutting machine market is the most significant, and the imported machine tools have fallen sharply. The demand for low-end products has been significantly reduced. The export of machine tool tools showed a slight fluctuation.
In 2013, the consumption of metal processing machine tools in China reached US$31.91 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%. Among them, Jinchee machine tool consumption was US$20.71 billion, down 24.4% year-on-year; forming machine tool was US$11.2 billion, up 2.8% year-on-year.
Although most of the machine tool products have experienced different degrees of decline, in the areas of “specialized, refined, special†products, automation products, and high value-added services, they have shown a trend of contrarian growth, and this trend will continue to this day. For several years.
For the trend of 2014-2015, China Machine Tool Industry Association believes that the significant reduction in the total market demand and the accelerated upgrading of the demand structure will not change. This kind of change will not only force the adjustment and transformation of China's machine tool industry, but also pose new challenges and new development opportunities for global machine tool manufacturers.
EU: Opening the pace of growth
In the second quarter of 2013, the EU's GDP turned from negative to positive, indicating that the longest economic crisis experienced by the EU was terminated in 2013. At present, the EU's overall consumer confidence index has reached its highest value since 2008, and the high unemployment rate has begun to fall in some countries. Both consumption and investment in the EU have grown, while economic growth has reduced dependence on the outside world. Industrial production has grown moderately, and capacity utilization has approached the historical average.
The EU's machine tool exports accounted for 83% of the output value, which was affected by the weakness of emerging markets (China, India, Russia). In 2013, EU machine tool shipments reached 18.3 billion euros, the second highest in history.
In 2013, EU machine tool consumption decreased by 4% year-on-year, but in 2014 it began to resume growth. At present, the number of machine tool orders in the EU has increased by 8% and 16% respectively year-on-year and year-on-year. It is cautiously optimistic that the EU machine tool consumption will increase by 4.6% for the whole year. It should be higher than the growth rate of machine tools in China and Taiwan.
EU machine tool orders mainly come from equipment upgrades and emerging markets, while the EU's new equipment purchases the largest industry – the automotive industry lacks investment momentum.
For the future technological development trend, the European Machine Tool Association believes that intelligent production will lead the development direction of the manufacturing industry. Intelligent manufacturing will make the production process more efficient and the products more precise; the man-machine dialogue is more convenient; the processing of complex parts is simpler; the service is smoother. In short, intelligence has created a new window that will make the production process more resource-saving and energy-saving, and the impact on the environment will be greatly reduced.
As the European economy recovers, the EU's monetary policy is likely to tighten and the exchange rate will rise to normal levels. It is estimated that in the next five years, the average growth rate of the European economy will be 1.9%, and the average annual growth rate of fixed asset investment will be 3.4%. Due to the slowdown in equipment investment in the previous two years, it is expected that machine tool consumption will grow at an average annual rate of 5.8% in the next two years.
Germany: Economic growth is still unstable
In 2014, the rapid growth of German steel, electrical, mechanical, rail transit, aviation and other machine tool users will have a certain pulling effect on the demand for German machine tools. In 2013, the growth of German machine tools with higher orders overseas - Turkey, the UK and Russia will not be significant in 2014. Overseas orders will mainly rely on Asia and the Americas.
Domestic and overseas orders for German machine tools are expected to increase by 10% in 2014, and machine tool output will increase by 3% to reach €14.8 billion, the highest point in history. If the world political situation is stable in 2015 and there is no regional crisis, it is expected that this growth will continue.
The German Machine Tool Association believes that the trend of machine tool technology development in the next few years will be reflected in personalization, automation and high efficiency. Personalized products are not just machine tools themselves, but the concept penetrates into the various components of the machine, such as cooling systems, loading and unloading systems, storage systems, and so on. Some users no longer plan large production lines, but only those critical machines that must be available. The user provides the parts and the machine tool builder designs the solution. In addition, energy conservation will also be a long-term theme, and it is a trend to reduce energy consumption by using components such as variable frequency motors and low-power hydraulic valves.
Italy: Machine tool demand is steadily increasing
In 2013, the output value of Italian machine tools was 4.78 billion euros, a slight decrease of 1% year-on-year; Of these, exports account for three quarters. China, the United States, Germany, Russia, and France are major export destinations. From the current situation, imports increased slightly by 0.7%, and machine tool consumption has reached the bottom, down 1.6% from 2012.
According to the Oxford Economic Report, Italy still has not shaken off the impact of high unemployment rate and tight monetary policy in 2014. Domestic consumption is weak, but exports will increase. Therefore, Italy's GDP is expected to increase by 0.1% in 2014. The main user industry in the machine tool industry will achieve a recovery growth of 2.3%, but the production value of the precision and optical instrument industry, which is growing rapidly in 2013, will be reduced. It is estimated that in 2014, the output value of Italian machine tools will increase by 4.6% to 5 billion euros; exports will hit an all-time high and export rates will remain above 75%.
The Italian Robotics and Automation Industry Association believes that despite the weakness of the automotive industry, the machine tool industry has been hit, but other areas such as biomedicine, nanotechnology, energy, aerospace and other fields have provided new opportunities for the machine tool industry. Under the framework of the EU “Vision 2020â€, capital will be more invested in technological innovation and create better development prospects for the Italian machine tool industry. 5% of the Italian machine tool industry's output value is used for research and development. Through close cooperation with end users, Italian machine tool manufacturers seek to provide users with the most suitable products.
Spain: Machine tool orders are gaining momentum
Spain's main economic indicators show that the Spanish economic downturn has slowed down. In 2013, the economy grew by -1.3%, and it is expected to achieve a positive growth of 0.5% in 2014. The driving force for growth comes from the manufacturing sector, especially in the main user sectors of the machine tool industry, such as automotive parts, energy (wind power, hydraulics, photovoltaics, oil), aviation, railways and other fields. It is expected that the growth rate of these user areas will reach 4.2%, which is six times the average growth rate of the Spanish industry, which will lead to the rapid growth of machine tool orders.
Spanish machine tool consumption experienced a 10-year negative growth, up 4.5% year-on-year in 2013, which may be a turning point from negative to positive. But it must also be noted that the high unemployment rate in Spain and the tightening of the money may inhibit the growth of machine tool consumption.
Japan: Government supports industry growth
Japan’s GDP grew by 1.7% in 2013 and is expected to reach this growth rate in 2014. The growth point will be the renovation of equipment from private investment. The main factor in the recovery of the Japanese economy is the exchange rate factor (currency depreciation); and the tax reform implemented by the government to stimulate manufacturing consumption.
In 2013, Japanese machine tool orders decreased by 7.9% year-on-year, of which domestic orders increased by 6.6% year-on-year. Mainly due to the direct or indirect pull of government procurement growth. In Japan, orders for general machinery, automotive and parts, aerospace, shipbuilding, transportation equipment and other industries have increased to varying degrees in the main user segments of machine tools, while orders for the electronics and precision machinery industries have declined slightly. Japan’s overseas orders fell for two consecutive years in 2013 due to a 14.4% reduction in orders from Asia.
The Japanese government's loose economic policy and stimulating investment policies have boosted domestic demand and are expected to boost machine tool orders by 16.3% in 2014. In terms of overseas markets, Asia will remain the main market in Japan, accounting for 40%; followed by North America, more than one-third; Europe accounts for 20%. The United States has surpassed China to become Japan's largest overseas market.
US: Manufacturing boosts US economic growth
Although the US economy has not shown rapid growth to some Asian countries, it is not easy to maintain steady growth of 3-4% for four consecutive years. It is expected that US GDP will maintain a growth rate of 3% in 2014. It can be seen from this that the “return to manufacturing†strategy has made a great contribution to the US economy's bottoming out. This is the first time in half a century that the United States has relied on manufacturing to achieve economic recovery.
In 2014, the United States will become a major energy supplier in the world, with low energy prices and transportation costs, and a safe transportation network to ensure that local manufacturing is more competitive globally. In the next two or three years, the most important areas of concern for the machine tool industry include: First, the automotive industry, which will remain the most dynamic industry. The continuous introduction of new models and the regular replacement of power systems will become the focus of investment. The second growing industry is aerospace, and the global demand for various types of commercial aircraft continues to increase, making US aircraft manufacturers more plentiful. Finally, the return to manufacturing strategy has spawned a large number of outsourced processing companies. Because they serve a variety of industries, these companies are the largest group of machine tool consumers.
The American Machine Tool Association believes that the future trend of machine tool manufacturing technology will be in the fields of robotics, automation, and big data.
UK: Looking forward to a strong recovery
As capital moves from real estate to exports and commercial investment, the UK economy is beginning to recover. In 2013, UK GDP grew by about 1.9%. It is expected to grow by 2.2% in 2014, which means that all industries can achieve different levels of growth. It is estimated that machine tool consumption will increase by 4%. In 2013, the value of British machine tools was 600 million pounds, a year-on-year increase of 4%, of which 85% was exported; machine tool consumption was 640 million pounds.
In the UK, the clear trend in machine tool technology development is the increasing depth of technology-driven and automation applications. This depends on the rapid development of several major industrial sectors in the UK. First of all, the UK has a strong aerospace industry, ranking second in the world, and is the main driving force for technological advancement in the machine tool industry. The field has maintained rapid growth for decades. Second, many foreign auto companies have factories in the UK, which are important for the demand for machine tools. In addition, the energy sector cannot be ignored. The UK is laying oil and natural gas pipelines, plus green energy such as nuclear power and wind power. The UK is investing heavily in the energy industry.
South Korea: Investment grows steadily
In 2013, South Korea's manufacturing industry began to show signs of recovery, and machine tool purchases in the automotive, general machinery and equipment industries began to increase. The Oxford Economic Report predicts that Korean manufacturing will grow steadily in 2014, driven by strong investment in some advanced economies.
According to the data provided by the Korea Machine Tool Association, the South Korean machine tool order in 2013 has the following characteristics: the growth rate of overseas orders is higher than domestic orders; the orders for CNC machine tools are increasing while the orders for ordinary machine tools are falling; the decline of orders for CNC lathes is significantly larger than that for processing centers; Orders from machine tools in the automotive industry declined, while other industries showed growth, while orders for electronics, electronics and IT increased significantly.
As the global economy stabilizes, investor confidence will further increase. It is expected that the growth rate of Korean machine tool users will reach 10.9% in 2014, which will drive machine tool consumption growth by 5.1%.
Taiwan: Accelerating growth in 2014
Despite the continued sluggish economy in the past, Taiwan’s economy is expected to rebound strongly in 2014, driven by the acceleration of global economic growth, especially the steady growth of the US economy.
The Oxford Economic Report believes that Taiwan’s economy is highly dependent on mainland China, and Taiwan’s economic growth will slow down as China’s economy slows. In Taiwan, fixed-asset investment in various user sectors of machine tools is slightly insufficient, but it will still be better than 2013. It is expected that the growth rate of machine tool user industry will reach 5.4% in 2014, and Taiwan's economic growth rate will reach 3.1%.
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