Construction Securities (11.29): Copper and aluminum

The "Risk Warning" section of the magazine aims to describe the risk of long and short positions through the icon of the star flag. It is used as a reference for investors when dealing with open positions. In actual operation, investors need to trade according to their own short-term midlines. Different strategies and different varieties of fluctuations in the characteristics of a specific grasp. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆The reverse run range of the newer closing price may be less than 2% from the new closing price. ☆☆The reverse running range from the newer closing price may be greater than 2%. ☆☆☆The price is running in reverse of the new closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 5%. Risk Warning: Bulls: ☆ Short Risks: ☆ Tips before the market: Orient: Copper prices of the LME in March continued to decline this week. The first half of the week was supported by a significant weakening of the U.S. dollar and continued decline in copper stocks. The turmoil was up but failed to break through the previous high of 3177.5 U.S. dollars. Affected by the trend of the US dollar, it was once sharply down in intraday trading and rebounded late in the session. It closed at $3085/tonne, up by $8.5/tonne from last Friday, and the fluctuation ranged from $3145.5 to $3007.5/tonne. The line is a small male lead with a long lower lead. Relative to the price of copper, this week LME3 aluminum trend is strong, breaking the original shock box, compared to the closing price of 1855 US dollars / ton, up 64 US dollars / ton from last Friday, fluctuations in the range of 1857.5 to 1760 US dollars / Ton, the weekly line is the Zhongyang line with lower leads. This week, the LME copper stocks continued to show a downward trend. Compared to the end-of-stock inventory of 59.45 million tons, it fell by 4575 tons from the previous week. LME aluminum inventories continued to show growth this week, an increase of 9150 tons from the previous week, and the inventory at the weekend was 734,000 tons. Inventories of copper inventories on the Shanghai Exchange decreased by 1,245 tons to 23,258 tons this week, while aluminum stocks fell by 2,629 tons to 104,207 tons. The strike at the El Abra copper mine in Chile continued and the workers went on strike. However, the factory stated that the workers’ strike did not affect the output. The trend of the US dollar this week has a direct impact on the price of copper. The record high value of the US dollar’s ​​Euro has given a big impetus to the price of copper. On Friday, due to market rumors, the Chinese government will reduce large amounts of US Treasuries and clarified the rumour at night. The fluctuation of the U.S. dollar made the intra-plate copper price fluctuate sharply, and the trend of bottoming out rebounded. After domestic aluminum prices showed shrinkage in the first half of the week, there was a significant increase in the involvement of incremental funds on Friday, which should be worth our attention in the near future. Next week's market forecast: From the current trend, the LME March copper has a large resistance near the previous high point, and because the current fundamentals can not support the long-term rise in copper prices, the external disk on Friday also reflects the market at any time There may be a turnaround, and the operation should be short-term tentative short-term in the latter month to control a good position. Ma Hongqing: The LME copper price fell in Friday's trading. As COMEX was in the Thanksgiving holiday, the transaction in the international copper market seemed inactive, and LME stocks fell further, but at the same time, the holding position reached 175,000 hands. This is extremely inconsistent with the inventory of less than 60,000 tons. The rumor that there are a large number of unregistered stocks in Singapore still affects the mindset of traders. For long position holders, the decline in inventories and the continued depreciation of the US dollar are clearly a good reason; for short position holders, there is no real excuse except for the historically high price zone, and of course there are others. guess. Obviously, the high price will prompt a change in supply and demand conditions and induce a drop in prices, but this will take some time, perhaps a month, or it may be a quarter. The domestic spot price appears to be under heavy pressure in the 32500 area. For the spot market, it is obviously to a key bottleneck position. Breakthroughs will rise further in the short term, otherwise it will fall back. As far as the current fundamentals are concerned, it is unlikely that the spot price will fall below 28500. Technically indicating that the trend of copper prices in the short term is not clear, investors are advised to wait and see. It is expected that Shanghai CU CU502 will test the support level of 28800 on Monday, with further support at 28500, pressure at 29000, followed by 29200, breaking 29200 means the price will further reach 30,000. Overseas Express: LME Market Report: London November 26 news: London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals recovered from lows on Friday, boosted by short-coverage and profit-taking buying before the weekend, but most metals still closed. Low. Three-month copper led the metal trend, rising by $30 from its early lows, but was weighed down by a few profit-taking selling pressures, still closing lower, dropping $3,100. "The earlier (period of copper) downtrend cleared a lot of steadfast Long. Later, gradually higher. "A trader said that prices fluctuate because although trading is relatively active, liquidity and buying interest are inhibited as U.S. traders continue to leave due to Thanksgiving. Earlier, it was hit by Chinese selling and later speculative selling pressure. Stop loss selling was triggered, but encountered support below 3,050 US dollars, and there was a short covering to make it reduce the decline. In the open outcry trade, it was closed. The US$3,074 is still far below the closing level of the composite transaction on Thursday night at US$3,115. “No one really wants to short these December contracts and the technical distortions have increased,” said one trader. The continued reduction in copper inventories in London provided support for copper prices. Analysts said that if copper stocks continue to decline next week, LME three-month copper may rebound to 3,100 US dollars / ton, support at 3015-3020 US dollars / ton. The spot/three-month inverse price spread is 137/139 US dollars, and Thursday is 135/140 US dollars. Earlier, the inverse price difference between tomorrow and the next day has narrowed since Thursday's US$7.50, and it was US$15 in the middle of the week. ** Market rumors that SRB may extend the contract ** Some traders said that there are rumors that China's State Reserve Bureau (SRB) may extend the contract held by it. The State Reserve Bureau’s December contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange It has held more than 30,000 tons of copper in long positions. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has fewer inventories than the above, so SRB's extension of the contract will prevent delivery problems and reduce the distortion of the December contract. "If they do not do this I will be surprised...but extending the contract to January will not have any impact on the overall situation - the market will continue to maintain the situation in short supply." Bache Financial's McMillan said. "The market was finding support when it fell, because It gave the shorts a chance to cover. " ** LME copper stocks continue to fall ** LME copper stocks continue to decline, reducing 200 tons to 59,450 tons, setting a new low since July 1990.