Steel prices have to rise, will the hardware industry be affected?
2019-02-20 10:04:45
Although the performance of the steel market is not worthy of being called the "high season", but compared with all the way up, the twists and turns after the consolidation is more in line with the current reality, and it is more realistic. From May this year to the present, the total investment of large projects approved by the National Development and Reform Commission is about 7 trillion yuan. So far this year, the strength of infrastructure investment has exceeded that of last year. From the action of the local government to speed up the launch of large-scale investment projects in September and the National Development and Reform Commission intensively approving infrastructure projects, the state may once again use fiscal funds to restart a new round of large-scale fixed asset investment. In addition, in the fourth quarter, manufacturing investment is also bottoming out, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is on the rise, both of which will drive the overall investment growth rate to improve, and the steel market demand will improve. By the end of September, domestic steel social inventories have been continuously reduced. In some markets, some varieties were out of stock and sold. End-user inventory has also been largely digested. The steel industry PMI rebounded by 3.6 percentage points. The current steel market demand comes from replenishment demand on the one hand, and a modest increase in new orders from enterprises. In the case of widespread losses in steel mills and a significant reduction in the scale of operations by traders, the relationship between supply and demand of steel is expected to improve gradually. In addition, the steel industry PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) rebounded by 3.6 percentage points in August from August, breaking away from the low of nearly 45 months set in August, with the steel industry's new orders index rebounding sharply by 9.3 percentage points to 41.6. % also shows that market demand is tending to pick up. The mainstream steel mills' factory prices in October were stable and strong. On September 29, Shagang introduced the ex-factory price in early October, and the prices of its mainstream products all rose. This indicates that the steel mills are more optimistic about the steel market in early October. From the comparison of the ex-factory price of Shagang in the first ten days of October and the spot price of the Shanghai market, the prices of rebar, wire and hot-rolled sheet of Shagang are still upside down by 30 yuan/ton compared with the current spot market price, indicating that there is still a further price increase. Possibility, it is expected that the price of mainstream steel mills will rise steadily in October. After QE3 (the third quantitative easing policy), the liquidity of the European and American countries is rampant, the expectation of RMB appreciation is heating up again, and the trend of global hot money to the east is expected to be formed again. A large influx of funds into China will result in substantial improvements in domestic liquidity. This is conducive to the recovery of the domestic economy, but also conducive to the fundamental changes in the supply and demand of steel. At the same time, QE3 stimulated the sharp rise of international commodity futures, and the market gradually replaced pessimistic expectations. Under the expectation, the desire of enterprises to replenish stocks has increased, especially after the decline of steel prices for five months, the stocks of enterprises are extremely low. After the market expects to turn better and the funds face to loosen, the enthusiasm of enterprises to replenish the stocks It will gradually increase, which will directly benefit the steel market. At present, rebar futures performance bottomed out, coke futures also out of a new high in two months, the support of raw material cost side and the performance of futures, the market expects steel market "Silver 10" still have room for improvement.
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