The EU is attacking Chinese companies, aiming to seize the commanding heights of new industries

On the 20th, news from Reuters showed that EU Trade Commissioner Karl de Gucht made it clear for the first time that Huawei and ZTE violated the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy regulations in the region, so they are preparing to launch a double Anti-"investigation in order to protect a major strategic area of ​​the EU economy.

Photovoltaic, communication equipment, aviation... Recently, the EU has intensively launched an impact on China's exports in many fields. In this regard, some analysts believe that it is due to the economic downturn in Europe. However, the paradox is that the EU's restrictions on China's products will eventually lead to a loss of both sides, which is not conducive to European industrial revitalization and economic recovery. Once the two-party trade war breaks out, the losses are even more difficult to calculate.

Industry experts pointed out that the fact that the EU does not hesitate to sacrifice short-term economic benefits is for a longer-term plan. In terms of industrial policies, we will suppress China as a potential competitor and seize the commanding heights of the strategic industry. In terms of trade policy, we will grab the layout in 2016 before China will automatically gain market economy status in 2016.

Influential multi-disciplinary intensive China

A wave of waves has risen again. Just as the PV dispute is spurring the Sino-European economic and trade relations, the investigation of Huawei and ZTE has once again been put on the agenda by the European Commission. According to a Reuters report on the 20th, Huawei and ZTE were first publicly named by the European Commission, saying that the two world-leading Chinese telecom companies have gained an unfair advantage and are preparing to conduct double-reverse investigations on the two companies.

"We have started three rounds of negotiations on this, but we have not achieved any satisfactory results." De Gucht said, "I believe that China and Europe's two major trading partners have reached a friendly solution in this important and strategic area. It is good for the entire world economy and world trade. But it is hard to say that if we need it, we will introduce the necessary measures."

It is worth noting that EU telecommunications equipment manufacturers have not initiated any complaints against Huawei and ZTE. Ericsson, the European telecommunications equipment manufacturer, currently dominates the world with a 35% share, but the company is opposed to the EU survey. Therefore, if the EU investigates the case, it will be the first independent investigation initiated by the company without receiving a complaint from the company.

And this is just a microcosm of the EU's frequent attacks on China. The EU launched anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on photovoltaic cells in China in September and November 2012 respectively. The dispute involving a total amount of US$20.4 billion was the largest trade dispute between China and Europe. At present, the PV dispute case is under intensive negotiation and negotiation. The "Economic Information Daily" reporter recently learned that the case will be voted on by the member states on the 24th of this month and will be decided on June 6. According to industry insiders, the EU will impose an anti-dumping heavy tax of 47% on China's PV products regardless of the opposition of its member states and industry.

The aviation carbon tax has also been revived by the EU in the midst of controversy. The Financial Times quoted an EU official as saying that it would punish eight Chinese airlines for refusing to hand over relevant flight emissions data. According to EU regulations, eight airlines, including China International Airlines, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines, will face a penalty of 2.4 million euros.

"Brussels is turning to a confrontational posture because the European side lacks other effective means to counteract the radical industrial policies that China has in mind." Director of the European International Political Economy Center of Brussels Think Tank, Echonik Lee - Mushan Haoshi H osukLee -M akiyam a said. He is worried that the EU's "tooth-tooth" approach may produce unpredictable shock waves.

Real purpose to snatch the commanding heights of new industries

The EU has intensively attacked China's high-end manufacturing in many fields. Some analysts believe that it is due to the economic downturn in Europe. However, the paradox is that the EU initiated investigations to impose restrictions on Chinese products. In fact, the result will be the result of both losses, which is not conducive to European industrial revitalization and economic recovery. And once the two sides trade war broke out, the losses are even more difficult to calculate.

Taking the photovoltaic industry as an example, Chinese and European companies have long been in the upstream and downstream relationship in the photovoltaic field. The advantages of China's industry are in the production of battery components and panels. However, most of the raw materials, equipment and production technologies required for production are imported from the EU and other countries, which has created a large number of jobs for the downstream industries such as the EU PV installation. Recently, a report released by a Swiss independent research institute showed that if the EU imposes punitive tariffs on China's photovoltaic products, it will cause the EU to lose 242,000 jobs, of which Germany is the most affected and may lose about 85,000 jobs in three years. . The EU's PV producers may increase their employment by no more than 20% of the lost employment opportunities in the PV industry chain.

In this regard, Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, told the reporter of the Economic Information Daily that the reason why the EU has been willing to take such actions that harm others is not only a deep-seated reason for historical understanding, strategy, and politics.

From a strategic point of view, Meng Xianyu said that photovoltaic is a strategic emerging industry and an integral part of the third industrial revolution. In the past five years, China's photovoltaic industry output has been the world's number one in the world, and it has occupied about half of the market in Europe, which has aroused the vigilance of politicians in the United States, Europe and other countries. Obama has publicly stated that new technologies such as photovoltaics will never allow China to take the lead, because whoever takes the lead in strategic emerging industries, that is, master the initiative of the world economy, and this PV double-reverse is to take China The photovoltaic enterprises are dead, thus robbing the commanding heights of emerging industries. Now the EU has imposed sanctions on Huawei and ZTE, further illustrating their intentions."

It is reported that the European Commission issued a new industrial policy brief in October last year, officially proposed to reverse the decline in the proportion of industry through the "new industrial revolution". By 2020, the industrial added value will increase from the current 15.6% to the GDP. 20% of the overall goal of “re-industrialization”.

On the other hand, the EU is preparing for the 2016 deadline. China will automatically gain market economy status in 2016. At that time, third-party reference countries will no longer be able to determine the anti-dumping tax rate. Therefore, the anti-dumping weapon has a drastically reduced lethality. The EU hopes to prepare more by 2016 and make some big moves to attract attention. At the policy level, the newly revised trade defense system is intensifying and will be officially launched in 2015. The key one is that the European Commission will be able to circumvent industrial applications and initiate investigations on its own. The danger of anti-dumping procedures becoming trade protectionist tools will be greater than ever. The double-reverse investigation of Huawei and ZTE will be the first practical case of this clause, and its significance is self-evident.

Cyclone and resolutely counter trade protection behavior

With the approach of the EU's PV preliminary ruling, the domestic industry and experts are increasingly calling for counter-attacks. Experts have called for China to form a systematic counter-measure and actively prepare for sanctions. Sanctions can be considered for photovoltaic products, automobiles, aircraft, agricultural products, etc. in Europe, as well as investment in European companies. In the long run, experts suggest that, in light of the EU's latest trade protection dynamics and policy changes, we must pay close attention to research, and the domestic industry, academic circles, and political circles will jointly explore the strategic thinking and policies for Europe and get rid of the passive situation.

Yuan Quan, manager of Huilun Solar's marketing department, believes that as the economic crisis continues, a greater danger is approaching China, that is, developed countries are formulating new international rules. The tendency of the new rules is to raise the threshold for normal exchanges among countries. The most important threshold is the market economy countries and the competition neutrality. These new regulations are largely directed at China. We hereby call on the Chinese government to conduct effective consultations and mediation with the EU in a timely manner to secure reasonable benefits for the photovoltaic industry.

Experts pointed out that if the trade war is counter-attacked, the cards that China can play in the first place are to impose punitive tariffs on the polysilicon products of the EU. On November 1, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to conduct anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on solar-grade polysilicon originating in the European Union, and the results will be announced in early June. In addition, on November 5 last year, China proposed to negotiate with the EU and its related member states under the WTO dispute settlement mechanism on the PV subsidy measures of some EU member states, and officially launched the WTO dispute settlement procedure.

Huo Jianguo, dean of the Ministry of Commerce, told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that if the EU does not consider the actual situation of the industry and makes extreme choices, it will not leave a trace of vitality for China's already troubled PV companies. Sexual action. For example, at the level of multilateral dispute resolution mechanisms, sanctions on European products, and severe sanctions against European polysilicon products under investigation, let them taste the taste of both sides. What needs to be reminded is that such a situation will inevitably undermine the atmosphere of Sino-European cooperation in the short term and is not conducive to bilateral economic and trade development.

"If the EU is willing to go its own way, we must immediately take a positive counter-attack, and we can set limits on polysilicon and photovoltaic equipment in Europe," said Tu Xinquan, vice president of China WTO Research Institute of China University of International Business and Economics.

He also said that it is foreseeable that the overall economic and trade situation between China and the EU will be tightened this year. Especially in 2013 under the background of quantitative easing, the risks of exchange rate wars and trade wars may be further aggravated. He said that Europe's adjustment of industrial structure and the realization of "re-industrialization" is a long-term process. In addition, trade protection behaviors often have "inertia". Considering this comprehensively, China and Europe will still be full of friction this year.

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