**Abstract:**
Core Tip: China's import and export data for July showed a strong performance, with both copper and scrap copper imports experiencing positive growth. At the same time, China's industrial output exceeded expectations, boosting market sentiment and pushing copper prices to $7,200. However, the short-term rally driven by positive news is expected to be temporary, as downstream demand remains weak, putting pressure on copper prices in the near term.
[Latest Market Updates]
â— **LME Metals**:
- Copper (LME) closed at 7,270.5, up 80.5 points.
- Aluminum rose to 1,872, gaining 28.2.
- Zinc climbed to 1,940, up 44.2.
- Lead reached 2,176.8, increasing by 38.3.
- Nickel surged to 14,716, rising 410.
- Tin jumped to 22,000, up 270.
- COMEX Copper ended flat at 3.31.
â— **Precious Metals**:
- Spot Gold traded at 1,329.23, up 14.66.
- Silver rose to 20.86, gaining 0.32.
- Platinum climbed to 1,507.5, up 5.75.
- Palladium reached 745.65, increasing by 4.2.
â— **LME Stocks**:
- Copper stocks fell to 594,500, down 3,075.
- Aluminum stocks dropped to 5,463,350, decreasing by 8,125.
- Zinc stocks declined to 1,047,875, down 1,075.
- Lead stocks fell to 199,275, down 550.
- Nickel stocks decreased to 204,024, down 84.
- Tin stocks remained flat at 13,750.
â— **Shanghai Futures Inventory**:
- Copper warehouse receipts dropped to 47,044, down 250.
- Aluminum fell to 84,764, decreasing by 1,567.
- Zinc remained flat at 107,803.
- Lead dropped to 98,095, down 426.
[**LME Analysis & Today’s Forecast**]
â— **Copper**:
Eurozone economic data continued to surprise positively, supporting copper’s rebound. While a small increase is expected in the short term, resistance at $7,400 could limit further gains.
â— **Aluminum**:
LME aluminum rose as expected last week, but its momentum has largely been exhausted. We expect limited room for further gains, suggesting a possible shorting opportunity.
â— **Lead**:
LME lead saw a sharp weekly rise, reaching its highest level since June, driven by strong Chinese industrial data. With signs of economic stability in major consumers, we anticipate a potential adjustment this week.
â— **Zinc**:
Strong macroeconomic data from China boosted market sentiment, leading to a monthly high for zinc. However, the rebound appears overbought, and without strong spot demand, a pullback is likely.
â— **Tin**:
Industrial production data was strong, pushing tin to a four-month high. While technical indicators remain favorable, traders should watch for potential retracement risks during the day.
â— **Nickel**:
Positive Chinese data eased market concerns, lifting nickel to its highest level since June. A 3% gain brought it to $14,716. From a technical standpoint, a short-term upward trend is expected.
[**Industry Insights**]
â— **Hunan Zinc Production**:
In January–June 2013, Hunan’s zinc output reached 563,771.49 tons, up 12.25% year-on-year. June alone saw a 9.66% increase. As one of China’s top zinc-producing regions, Hunan accounts for about 20% of national output. Despite oversupply, large-scale producers continue expanding, keeping production levels rising.
◠**China’s Copper Imports**:
July saw a significant rise in unwrought copper and copper imports, reaching 410,380 tons—up 8% from June. This marked the highest level since May 2012. Analysts suggest that much of the increased imports may be due to financing activities to ease liquidity constraints. With the peak consumption season approaching, low bonded inventory also contributed to the surge.
[**Financial Highlights**]
â— **Stock Indices**:
- Dow Jones fell 72.8 to 15,425.5.
- Nasdaq dropped 9.01 to 3,660.11.
- CRB Index declined 0.12 to 510.33.
- US Dollar Index rose 0.04 to 81.16.
- EUR/USD fell 0.0008 to 1.3333.
- USD/JPY climbed 0.07 to 96.3.
- US Crude Oil dropped 0.14 to 105.83.
[**Economic Outlook**]
â— **Germany Economic Growth**:
Germany is expected to see strong growth in Q2, driven by increased private consumption and construction investment. While the economy is recovering, growth is expected to slow in the coming months.
◠**China’s Industrial Output**:
China’s industrial output for July rose 9.7% year-on-year, exceeding the 9% forecast. This marks the second-highest growth rate of the year after January–February, signaling improved economic momentum.
[**Solder Industry Update**]
Solder companies in Guangzhou and Zhejiang have seen mixed results due to high temperatures and reduced operating rates. While August shows some improvement, the overall outlook remains cautious. The third quarter is typically a peak season for electronics, but demand remains uncertain. Solder factories are adopting on-demand procurement strategies to avoid overstocking, especially with rising tin prices.
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