China floor market status and trend forecast
2025-08-28 09:15:38
Since 2013, the Chinese flooring market has been under intense pressure due to the government’s stringent real estate regulations. The introduction of new policies at the national and local levels led to a sharp decline in commercial real estate transactions and property sales, particularly in first-tier cities. This resulted in a severe market downturn, often described as colder than winter, which poses significant challenges for flooring companies across the board. For these businesses, this period represents more risk than opportunity.
The sales structure of flooring companies typically consists of three main components: newly installed users from both new and existing housing stock, second-time or higher home renovations, and large-scale procurement projects for new developments. These three segments usually account for a ratio of approximately 6:2:2, with the majority of sales coming from new installations. Most flooring companies target new homeowners as their primary customers.
Currently, the size of the flooring market is closely tied to the construction and decoration materials industry. This, in turn, depends on the health of the overall decoration market, which is driven by real estate development. Real estate growth is largely influenced by local supply and demand dynamics, which are now heavily shaped by China's unique financial policies. With the government focusing on lowering CPI and reducing the real estate sector’s share of GDP, liquidity has been tightened through measures such as increasing deposit reserve ratios and interest rates. These actions aim to curb speculative real estate investment and stabilize housing prices.
While affordable housing and low-rent housing projects have seen some growth, they have had minimal impact on the broader flooring industry. Instead, high- and mid-range flooring products have suffered the most. Many companies faced extremely difficult conditions, especially during the first half of the year.
In major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, the flooring market capacity has declined rapidly. However, some second-tier cities and most third- and fourth-tier cities still rely on traditional land-based fiscal policies, resulting in less drastic fluctuations. Still, the overall trend remains downward, with market capacity shrinking significantly.
In 2012, many flooring companies enjoyed a strong year, with wood flooring sales reaching 400 million square meters. Despite this, there were over 5,000 manufacturers, with only around 1,000 to 2,000 being recognized brands—about 25% of the total. Under the current market contraction, oversupply remains a key issue. Market share is increasingly concentrated among top-tier brands, while smaller brands face declining shares and rising competition. Some distributors have even shifted strategies, selling not just flooring but also household appliances, bedding, and sanitation products, effectively competing with other industries rather than just their peers.
As the market contracts, we may see increased consolidation, with stronger brands potentially gaining more control. Additionally, hot money from related sectors like real estate and interior design is entering the flooring industry due to its large market size and low entry barriers. Some real estate and decoration firms have even started producing their own flooring products. As a result, the industry is expected to continue its restructuring process, with competition intensifying and market dynamics shifting further.
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