Long plate sheet differentiation

The domestic steel market is currently entering a seasonal off-peak period, with cost support remaining strong and the recovery of the manufacturing sector providing solid backing for the sheet metal market. However, the long product segment continues to face weak adjustment due to seasonal factors. In the short term, the overall steel market is expected to see a slight upward trend, with notable differences between the long steel and plate markets. According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center’s weekly price prediction model, this week (December 17–21, 2012), domestic steel prices are expected to rise slightly. The long products market will experience a stable adjustment, while the plate market may fluctuate. The Lange Steel Composite Index is projected to hover around 147.4, with an average steel price of approximately 3,830 yuan, and a volatility of about 20 yuan. The Lange Steel Long Product Index is expected to remain around 160.0, with a minor adjustment of about 0.3 points, while the Steel Price Index is forecasted to stay near 131.1, showing a small increase of around 0.5 points. From the Lange Steel Information Research Center's market survey, it is anticipated that this week, the domestic long products market will remain stable or see small adjustments, while the plate market will show more volatility. Raw material prices are expected to be steady or slightly adjusted, with iron ore, coke, and scrap prices remaining stable, and billet prices declining by 10–20 yuan. In the 50th week of 2012 (December 10–14), the Lange Steel (LGMI) Composite Price Index reached 146.9 points, up 0.73% from the previous week and down 4.18% year-on-year. The LGMI Long Products Price Index was at 160.3 points, rising 0.74% weekly and falling 17.83% compared to the same period last year. The LGMI Sheet Price Index stood at 130.6 points, increasing 0.71% weekly and decreasing 8.14% year-on-year. According to data on 17 categories of 44 standard steel varieties monitored in some regions, major steel product prices saw only slight fluctuations during the 50th week. Among them, flat products rose, while falling varieties decreased significantly. Twenty-four varieties increased, up nine from the previous week; 14 remained flat, up five; and six declined, down 14 from the prior week. Steel raw material prices showed a slight upward trend, with coke and scrap prices stable, iron ore rising by 15–30 yuan, and billet prices increasing by 60–70 yuan. This week, national steel social stocks began to rise after eight consecutive weeks of decline. Building materials stock levels accelerated slightly, and the decline rate of sheet steel slowed. On December 14, total steel social stocks in 29 key cities reached 11,816,500 tons, up 39,800 tons from the previous week. Wire rod inventory increased by 3.44%, rebar by 1.50%, and panluo by 5.37%. Hot-rolled coil and cold-rolled coil inventories decreased slightly, while plate stocks fell by 0.65%. The steel market continued its upward trend this week, with rebar prices rising by 130 points from the previous week. The main contract closed at 1.487 million hands, with a significant increase in trading volume, indicating strong internal support for the price rally. Macroeconomic indicators also played a role in influencing steel prices. In November, the national consumer price level rose by 2.0% year-on-year, with urban areas up 2.1% and rural areas up 1.9%. Producer prices fell by 2.2% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment grew by 20.7% year-on-year. Industrial added value increased by 10.1% year-on-year, and electricity consumption rose by 7.6% compared to the same period last year. In terms of trade, Brazil imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese stainless steel cutlery, while China's steel exports rebounded in November. Domestic real estate investment increased by 16.7%, and auto sales rose by 8.2% year-on-year. Railway and transportation investments also showed positive growth, reflecting ongoing infrastructure development. Overall, the steel market remains influenced by both supply-side dynamics and macroeconomic trends, with expectations of continued modest price movements in the near term.

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