Welcome to the era of ocean oil and gas development

In the past 10 years, 53% of China’s newly added oil production has come from the oceans and reached 85% in 2010. This means that for China, which has more than 3 million square kilometers of rich resources, the era of offshore oil development is already arrival.

The rise in energy prices has led the world to explore new sources of energy supply, and countries have begun to move toward the sea to extract oil. Now, the global oil community has formed a consensus that submarine oil and gas, especially deep sea oil and gas, will be an important area for the future replacement of oil and gas resources in the world.

The exploration practice of large-scale oil and gas fields in the world over the past decade shows that the onshore oil and gas resources are gradually depleted, 60% to 70% of new oil reserves are derived from the ocean, and half of them are in (above 500 meters). deep sea. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the final potential oil reserves in the global deep sea area may exceed 100 billion barrels. In 2010, deep-sea crude oil production could reach 8.5 million barrels per day and 430 million tons per year, which can meet 9% of global oil demand. It can be seen that the ocean has become the main region where global oil and gas resources take over, and the deep sea has become a virgin land that has not been exploited on a large scale.

With the continuous development of deep-water exploration technologies, the development of deep-sea oil has accelerated. In recent years, the soaring high oil prices have accelerated the search process for countries seeking oil from the sea. The next 10 years will be vigorously supported. In the past 10 years, 53% of China’s newly added oil production has come from the oceans, and in 2010 it has reached 85%. Exploration and development of offshore oil and gas are becoming the main force for China’s crude oil production. According to the “Decision of the State Council on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries,” China has also included the development of marine engineering in the manufacturing of high-end equipment for emerging industries. That is, it has more than 3 million square kilometers of rich resources for China. This means that the era of offshore oil development has come.

Marine equipment manufacturing is characterized by high technology, high investment, and high risk. Large-scale enterprises are most likely to become the final winners. Korean shipping companies will become the main competitors of Chinese shipping companies. 70% of China's offshore oil and gas is hidden in the deep sea, and breakthroughs in deep-sea mining technology will become a key factor in the long-term strategy of offshore oil and gas development.

World Ocean Oil and Gas Development Has Bright Prospects

The rise in energy prices has led the world to explore new sources of energy supply. Countries have accelerated the pace of oil exploration into the sea.

On the one hand, the current sluggish supply of oil is pushing the oil companies to venture deep into the ocean. Global oil production has been maintained at around 85 million barrels per day for several years in a row, and industry insiders have judged that there will be no significant growth in the next few years. At present, most of the world's oil is produced in oil fields discovered in the middle of the last century. The data in recent years shows that traditional oil resources have entered the “platform period” and the output growth is weak. On the other hand, the lack of supply also caused the constant refreshment of crude oil prices. International oil prices rose from US$24.46 per barrel in 2001 to US$79.61 per barrel in 2010, and the price was 3.25 times that of ten years ago. The retail price of China's No. 93 gasoline rose from 2.89 yuan per litre in 2001 to 7.17 yuan in 2010, which was 2.5 times the price of ten years ago. The high cost of offshore oil exploration has become a lucrative emerging industry in contrast with high oil prices.

The development prospects of the world’s marine oil and gas resources are broad, and the global shipbuilding industry will focus on offshore manufacturing in the next five years. The world’s offshore oil accounts for about 34% of the total oil resources. Deep-sea oil reserves are abundant and it is estimated to exceed 100 billion barrels. At present, offshore oil and gas exploration is still in the early to mid-exploration stage, and the proven rate of offshore oil is about 30%. According to forecasts of Douglas-Weiswood Company: In the next five years, the global offshore oil and gas industry will invest 189 billion U.S. dollars to build 15,000 oil and gas exploration and production wells on the oceans and oceans around the world, and the global market size of offshore floating production equipment will be approximately 100 billion U.S. dollars. .

The distribution of ladders in the global offshore manufacturing manufacturing team is obvious. China is at the lowest end of the value chain and is expected to rise in recent years. Global marine equipment manufacturers are mainly concentrated in the United States, Europe, Singapore, South Korea and other countries. The United States, Europe and other countries are focusing on R&D and construction of deep-water and ultra-deepwater high-tech platform equipment, monopolizing the supply of offshore engineering equipment development, design, engineering general contracting and key supporting equipment.

Singapore and South Korea are mainly engaged in the construction of relatively mature medium and shallow water platforms, and occupy a leading position in the assembly and construction field. Chinese companies are generally in the third echelon of manufacturing low-end products to earn processing costs. China has a 15% share of the global marine equipment market and gradually became a rising star in the global marine equipment market.

China has opened the era of offshore oil and gas exploration

The "Decision of the State Council on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries" will include the development of marine engineering in the high-end equipment manufacturing of emerging industries and vigorously support it in the next 10 years. It is expected that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the construction of China’s offshore continental shelf and continental slope will accelerate, and the total investment in marine equipment driven by the project is estimated to be 250 billion to 300 billion yuan, with an annual average of 500 billion yuan or more. China's "Eleventh Five-Year" period for the development of marine oil and gas resources has reached 120 billion yuan, a large market capacity.

According to the results of the third oil resource assessment, China's offshore oil resources amounted to 24.6 billion tons, accounting for 23% of the country's total oil resources; ocean natural gas resources amounted to 16 trillion cubic meters, accounting for 30% of the total. At present, the average proved rate of world offshore oil is 73%, while that of China is only 12.3%. The average proved rate of world ocean natural gas is 60.5%, while that of China is only 10.9%, both of which are well below the world average. The overall offshore oil and gas industry is in the early to mid-stage of exploration, with a solid resource base and a large potential for industrialization. It is the strategic focus of China's energy industry development in the future.

With the development of offshore oil and gas exploration and development extending from shallow seas and semi-shallow seas to deep seas, the degree of difficulty has gradually increased, and the advanced nature of technology has become a key factor supporting the development of the industry. After nearly 50 years of exploration, at present, China has formed a marine high-tech system that includes marine environment technology, resource exploration and development technology, and marine general engineering technology, and contains more than 20 technical fields. According to reports, China has launched China’s first marine satellite in marine monitoring technology, conquered key marine monitoring technologies such as acoustic current profile measurement, and developed a number of advanced marine observation instruments such as drifting buoys on the sea, which has significantly improved China’s The level of marine technology and the ability of domestic marine equipment to participate in market competition.

The bottleneck for deepwater exploration and development is mainly how to solve the problem of drilling vessels. To this end, China is building its own deep-sea fleet to build a deep-water drilling vessel with a depth of 3,000 meters. At the same time, CNOOC is also cooperating with the Norwegian company to convert a semi-submersible rig below 300 meters into a 1,500-meter deep-water vessel. Although China's offshore oil and gas resources exploration and development technology has achieved rapid development, compared with countries with advanced marine technology such as the United States, Britain, France, Russia, the Netherlands, and Norway, only some technologies have reached international standards, and the overall level is still relatively large. gap.

Among them, the development of CNOOC is worthy of attention. In the past 30 years since its establishment, CNOOC Limited has established a management system and technical system that is integrated with international practices and has a complete set of professional facilities through continuous technology introduction, absorption, and innovation. In particular, during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, CNOOC invested 15 billion yuan to build the “No. 981” ultra-deep-water semi-submersible drilling platform, deep-water geophysical vessel, deep-water multi-purpose survey vessel, deep-water high-powered anchoring three-purpose work vessel, and deepwater Restacking and other large-scale equipment, etc. represent the technological frontier level of China's deep-sea oil exploration.

Since 2010, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China has been stepping up development of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan period of marine engineering equipment development plan." The "planning" plan will build 50 million tons of crude oil production capacity in China's offshore shelf during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, and complete and commission 2-3 deep-water oil and gas fields. Driven by this, China will need more than 70 platforms and more than 10 FPSOs in the next five years.

In order to share the marine equipment market, domestic large-scale shipping companies have turned their backs and turned to the sea. Competition among enterprises has intensified. As of 2010, China already has more than 20 offshore equipment manufacturing companies, mainly in the Bohai Bay, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta regions, and is mainly engaged in shipbuilding and repairing companies.

Among many manufacturers, CIMC Raffles, Dalian Shipbuilding Heavy Industry, Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industry (600320), Shanghai Waigaoqiao (600648) Shipbuilding, COSCO Shipyard, China Merchants (Shenzhen) Heavy Industry, Qingdao Beihai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry, Shanghai Shipyard Such companies are in the first echelon and are mainly engaged in the construction of drilling platforms and floating production systems.

Domestic large-scale shipbuilders are accelerating the transition to offshore manufacturing. Major industry leaders such as COSCO Shipyard, Rongsheng Heavy Industry, Mingde Heavy Industry, Wison Heavy Industry Co., Ltd., Meilichang Tongbao, and Kebao Shipyard have launched their mid- to long-term "sea planning." Many companies have successfully transformed into marine manufacturing equipment companies and achieved full coverage of marine products.

Future business opportunities

In the future, Chinese shipbuilding companies will use marine oil and gas as the new commanding height to welcome the arrival of the era of offshore oil development. It is expected that in the next 10 years, China's oil and gas production is expected to increase at a rate of 20%, and the market prospect is broad. The development of offshore oil fields is basically a conventional water depth of less than 400 meters. China has ample resources for development. There are 1.53 million square meters of sea area over 300 meters in China. At present, only 160,000 square meters have been explored, and 90% have not yet been explored. CNOOC recently launched a 200 billion ocean development plan, and the prosperity of domestic marine equipment manufacturing industry will soon come.

Taking into account the characteristics of high-tech, high-input and high-risk manufacturing of marine equipment, large-scale enterprises are most likely to be the ultimate winners. For offshore construction, it is necessary to overcome the problems of high system integration, complicated processes, and difficult to control construction schedules. In addition to technology, the cost of marine equipment is relatively high, and the construction company must have a strong ability to mobilize funds. ** The continuing downturn in the market has become a key factor in the short-term suppression of offshore construction projects.

In the longer term, whether the shipyard has the ability to help the owner to complete the ** will be a decisive factor in whether the shipyard has the technical strength and cost competitive advantage of the construction of the shipyard. For various reasons in the economy, only large companies with considerable strength can become the absolute protagonist of entering and controlling the marine equipment market.

Korean shipping companies will become the main competitors of Chinese shipping companies. In 2010, South Korea's four major shipyards Hyundai Heavy Industries, Samsung Heavy Industries, Daewoo Shipbuilding and STX Shipbuilding have rapidly surpassed the speed of recovery of the entire market, recovering from the shadow of the global financial crisis. South Korea leads China in the technology and competitiveness of large-scale container ships, offshore platforms, LNG ships and marine power generation facilities. In 2010, although China's three indicators of shipbuilding completion, new orders received, and volume of orders held in hand surpassed South Korea in all respects, low-end and medium-end ship occupies a major share.

70% of China's offshore oil and gas is hidden in the deep sea, and breakthroughs in deep-sea mining technology will become a key factor in the long-term strategy of offshore oil and gas development. The development of Bohai Bay offshore oil fields has begun to take shape, while the deep-sea oilfields are still largely unexplored. The Bohai Gulf Oilfield, with an area of ​​only 77,000 square kilometers and an average water depth of only 18 meters, has been developed in large numbers. These include the Jinzhou condensate oil and gas field, the Suizhong oil field, the Qinhuangdao oil field, the Jixi oilfield group, the Weibei oilfield, the Weinan oil field group, and the Suizhong oil field.

In the South China Sea, the development of offshore oil and gas fields has reached a certain scale, while deepwater waters have yet to be developed. There are Weizhou Oilfield, Dongfang Gas Field, Yacheng Gas Field, Wenchang Oilfield Group, Huizhou Oilfield, Liuhua Oilfield, Lufeng Oilfield, and Xijiang Oilfield.

The technical personnel of the Sino-German cooperation project found evidence of the presence of natural gas hydrates in the northern slopes of the South China Sea, the Xisha Trough and the East China Sea slope. According to preliminary survey results, Huang Yongxun, chief engineer of the Guangzhou Marine Geological Survey of the project, said that only the gas hydrate reserves in the northern part of the South China Sea have reached about half of China’s total onshore oil. According to the metallogenic conditions, the natural gas hydrates in the entire South China Sea amount to half of China’s conventional oil and gas resources.