High growth in the first quarter is difficult to adjust the annual trend
1290% of net profit growth.
It is Xiagong shares that created this data. According to the first quarter report of XGMA, the company's net profit for the first quarter was about 136 million yuan. Due to the sharp decline in sales of leading products, the net profit of the company was only about 9.77 million yuan in the same period last year.
Such a high net profit growth is indeed rare, but this is not a case. This has become a common phenomenon in the first quarter report of listed companies of construction machinery. From January to February, the growth rate of industrial sales value was 54.43%. In March and April, it was the traditional peak season for industry sales. There is really no reason for the construction machinery industry not to usher in rapid growth.
In the first half of this year, the entire industry is expected to achieve a high growth rate of sales revenue of more than 30% year-on-year and month-on-month. However, such a gorgeous number as the first quarter will be difficult to sustain. According to the data and reasons reflected in a quarterly report, the profitability of listed companies in the first half of the year is expected to reach 2/3 of the whole year. This is evident from the overall development of the industry this year.
The performance of most enterprises rebounded. Xugong Machinery achieved operating income of 5.298 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 35.13% year-on-year; Sany Heavy Industry achieved operating income of 7.178 billion yuan, up 110.25% year-on-year; Zoomlion achieved operating income of 5.899 billion yuan, up 67.72% year-on-year. Liugong completed operating income of 3.461 billion yuan, an increase of 56.71%. The entire industry's operating situation in the first quarter was very good. The fundamental reason is that the 4 trillion yuan investment policy will once again effectively affect the construction machinery industry in the first half of this year.
Based on the project cycle, the Chinese government launched a 4 trillion yuan investment plan at the end of 2008. After project declaration, approval, fund implementation, and preliminary preparation work, the project started construction in the second half of last year. There will still be a large number of projects to be constructed this year. .
In addition, according to the sales cycle of construction machinery products, the third quarter is the rainy season in the southern region, and the fourth quarter is the cold winter in the north, which will have a certain impact on product sales. This means that although the construction machinery market driven by infrastructure projects last year continued to be hot, some markets were not released until the first quarter of this year. This led to a surge in product sales in the first quarter, which led to a significant increase in sales revenue.
In addition, the recovery of downstream industries such as coal is also a key factor affecting the industry's substantial increase. For the Chinese construction machinery enterprises, the mining industry is the largest product non-loader. According to a quarterly report, Xiagong shares, which had a sharp drop in sales of loader products last year, have stabilized in the first quarter of this year, and sales of the products have increased by 80% year-on-year.
However, there are also several companies that are not in a good situation. In the first quarter of the year, Dingsheng Tiangong achieved a total operating income of RMB 58.87 million, a decrease of 21.29% year-on-year; Hebei Xuangong achieved an operating income of RMB 190 million, a year-on-year increase of 98.09%. Although the net profit increased by 217.62% year-on-year, it was only about RMB 500,000. Operating income is very mismatched.
The surge in net profit is difficult. In addition to XGMA, there are also many construction machinery companies whose net profit has more than doubled. For example, Changlin's net profit for the same period was 64 million yuan, an increase of 513.30%; Shanhe Intelligent realized a net profit of 56 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 388%; Sany Heavy Industry realized a net profit of 932 million yuan, an increase of 170.85%; The company achieved a net profit of 735 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144.25%; Liugong achieved a net profit of 389 million yuan, an increase of 156.97%.
The surge in product sales is the current general situation facing the entire industry. Taking Xugong Machinery as an example, according to the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the sales volume of one of its leading products was 5,455 units in the first quarter, compared with 3,185 units in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 72% and a 40% increase from the previous quarter. The historical high of sales.
The main reason for the increase in gross profit margin is the lower price of raw materials, resulting in lower costs and greater profit margins. However, as domestic demand drove up the sales volume of the construction machinery industry in the domestic market, most of the raw materials such as steel that were previously purchased at low prices were consumed rapidly, and some enterprises' steel reserves have been warned. A quarterly report of Shantui shares shows that the company's gross profit margin is more than 2 percentage points lower than the fourth quarter of last year.
The surge in product sales and the increase in gross profit margin are the main reasons for the growth of the company's performance. However, as these two factors are unable to maintain a long-term positive situation, the net profit margin in the first quarter may be the highest point of the year.
At the same time, the price of steel is rising steadily. Affected by various factors such as cost, demand and capital, the overall price level of China's steel market in the first quarter increased by 5.4% compared with the same period of last year and increased by 5.2% compared with the beginning of the year. Compared with the beginning of the year, the average price increase of the wire, medium plate and excellent steel market in the first quarter reached more than 6 percentage points, and the low-cost era of raw materials has passed.
Market recovery remains to be tested The three main markets of the construction machinery industry are infrastructure construction, real estate and exports. The data indicators of the quarterly report also reflect the changes in these three markets.
From the current market structure of construction machinery products, its main market is still infrastructure construction projects. The effect of 4 trillion yuan of investment will continue to affect the development of the industry, especially driven by the regional economy and key projects. In 2010, the growth rate of China's fixed asset investment will reach more than 20%. Most listed companies attribute the increase in business revenue to this.
The real estate situation this year is not optimistic. However, there is a view that the impact of the real estate industry regulation and control on the construction machinery industry is not great. The reason is that the central and local governments have introduced measures to curb the rapid rise in housing prices while increasing investment in affordable housing construction, which is expected to compensate for the adverse effects of the preceding paragraph. In addition, the current house prices are still at a high level. In April, the sales prices of 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide rose by 12.8% year-on-year, among which the sales price of new residential buildings rose by 15.4% year-on-year, and the sales price of commercial residential houses rose by 17.3%. It is unclear to what extent the regulation policy can suppress the enthusiasm of the openers.
From the perspective of products, the most important construction machinery products affected by real estate are concrete machinery and earth-rock machinery. However, in the listed company's annual report, neither of these products seems to show an affected situation. Taking Sany Heavy Industry as an example, the company reported that the company's concrete products and excavators had a 150% unexpected growth. What impact will the real estate factor have on the overall impact of the industry? It will also depend on the country's further macroeconomic policies.
In 2010, the export of the industry was highly anticipated. It is estimated that the export growth rate in 2010 will reach 15%, but the next step in the development of the global economy still has a lot of variables, and it is still unclear whether this can be achieved. The quarterly report of companies such as Dingsheng Tiangong and Shantui, which accounted for a relatively large export revenue, did not show a strong recovery in exports.
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