The copper market is still weak
In May, the non-agricultural employment in the United States was higher than expected. The market worried about the Fed’s slowdown in QE. As the stimulus policy outlook still faces uncertainty, it quickly repelled the momentum of the copper price sprinting high. Subsequent Chinese data did not give the copper market a chance to slow down. China's CPI and PPI data both fell, the trade growth rate in May fell sharply, and the domestic economic growth rate was highlighted.
The Bank of Japan did not act in the market expectation, the interest rate decision to maintain the current monetary policy unchanged, and broke the market's expectations for extending the term of fixed-rate loans, bad news continues to help the copper price, reflecting the market's prospects for Japan's economic growth. disturbed.
In just a few days, domestic and foreign bad news was released, which is the main “pushing hand†to stimulate the downward trend of copper prices. Under the shadow of slow growth in demand, the support under the copper market is weak, and it will be more sensitive to macroscopic reactions.
Copper supply concerns have eased
India's largest copper smelter was forced to suspend production due to pollution problems at the end of March. The latest news shows that the mine can be restarted according to the scheduled time, and the re-launch of the Birla smelter in India will gradually alleviate the global copper supply shortage.
At present, Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is in a state of suspension due to force majeure, and it will play a certain role in the short-term impact on demand. However, in the absence of strong recovery momentum in China, as the smelting capacity gradually recovers, the demand lags behind the supply growth rate will continue to constrain the late trend of copper prices.
Market outlook
On the whole, the current copper price has returned to the range of the moving average, and the rebound is rather weak, mainly due to concerns about macroeconomic growth. In the past two days, the domestic market coincided with the Dragon Boat Festival. The current economic negative situation has been gradually consumed by the market. The suspension of the basic copper mines still has a small support for copper prices. In the short term, the copper price decline is limited, and it is expected to maintain a weak shock. With the gradual withdrawal of the fundamentals of the market, demand concerns will become more prominent, and the copper market is still facing downside risks.
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